Business Spectator( On Climate Change By Rob Burgess) Newsletter-Quote

Garnaut turns up the heat on Abbott

Rob Burgess

Published 7:49 AM, 4 Feb 2011 Last update 10:20 AM, 4 Feb 2011

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Ross Garnaut delivered two body blows to the Coalition last night, attacking the key rationales for a cautious 'wait and see' approach to carbon pricing, and providing increased support to Labor's current strategy on carbon pollution reduction.

Launching the first of eight updates to his 2008 Climate Change Review in Melbourne, Garnaut delivered the gloomy message that he believes global warming is happening more quickly than he did in 2008.

But it is not his updated climate change predictions that will resonate most in the corridors of power – it’s his succinct comment on the hypocrisy of climate change policy that will put the most wind in Labor's sails, and by extension put most pressure on Tony Abbott.

The two lines of argument most commonly raised against Labor's plans to impose a price on carbon are that Australia would be foolish to 'lead the world' in carbon reduction, and that more 'proof' is needed of global warming before we decide to act.

Garnaut last night tore those notions apart.

On the first point, Garnaut pointed out that Australia customarily has an exemplary history of punching above its weight in world affairs. "Whether or not we send troops to Afghanistan actually will not determine the outcome of Afghanistan. But we don't look at things in that way. We think in terms of making a proportionate effort to a collective goal we share with other countries," he said.

This follows Climate Change Minister Greg Combet's comment to The Age yesterday that, despite the Republican defeat of President Obama's carbon pricing plans, "'It doesn't matter what happens on Capitol Hill [in Washington]. If these [twelve US] states join together then there will be an emissions trading scheme that will cover a much, much larger economy than our own - California is part of it and it is the fifth largest economy in the world.''

On the second point, Garnaut argued firstly that there is no peer-reviewed scientific support in the past five years that can be used to argue that global warming is not happening in the way the 2007 IPCC report predicted.

To critics of carbon-pollution reduction, not being able to disprove the IPCC forecasts is less important that being unable to prove global warming is happening. Garnaut tackled this argument head-on, saying that uncertainty over global warming should be treated like all other kinds of uncertainty – "things we are prepared to insure against".

In yesterday's update Garnaut writes: "The principles of prudent risk management dictate that the case for action is strengthened, rather than diminished, by the fact that outcomes could turn out far worse (or better) than we expect. With strong mitigation, we at least rule out, or reduce to low probabilities, the potential for catastrophe."

The two ideas underpinning Garnaut's speech last night will form the backbone of Labor's attacks on the Coalition on climate change this year. There is huge uncertainty over whether the current round of natural disasters is being made worse by anthropogenic climate change, and it is because of the uncertainty that Labor is pushing to price carbon. And, as in other global affairs, Australia's size will not deter it from fulfilling its role as an international citizen.

To the Coalition, the fact that Garnaut has been advising Labor for three decades will make his position reek of being a pro-Labor statement in itself – Labor's massive loss of support in Queensland in the 2010 poll could be turned around by Garnaut's comments. Last night he said: "A warming climate does lead to intensification of these sorts of extreme climatic events that we've seen in Queensland and I think that people who are wishing to avoid those awful challenges in Queensland will be amongst the people supporting effective action on climate change."

This is all bad news for Tony Abbott. Voters know there is dissent in the ranks over how quickly and aggressively Australia needs to address its dependence on carbon-intensive energy. They know Malcolm Turnbull only stayed in politics because he knows there is a chance he will return to lead his party. And now they know that Garnaut thinks climate change is happening more quickly than he first suggested when he handed his first review to Kevin Rudd.

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